Evaluation of Labor Rights Efforts in Mexico Reveals Complex Effects
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December 2025
NORC’s use of the Most Significant Change methodology captures outcomes across 19 technical assistance programs supporting USMCA labor commitments in Mexico.
Measuring Change Across a Complex Policy Landscape
When the U.S. Congress allocated $180 million in technical assistance to help Mexico implement labor reforms under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the challenge wasn’t just ensuring the money was well spent—it was understanding whether 19 separate technical assistance programs were creating change greater than the sum of their parts.
The U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of International Labor Affairs (ILAB) turned to NORC at the University of Chicago to conduct a sweeping evaluation that would capture not just individual project outcomes, but the complex, interconnected effects of its technical assistance contributions across Mexico’s evolving labor landscape.
“ILAB wanted more evidence about cross-project outcomes—things that individual project evaluations can’t capture,” said Carlos Echeverría-Estrada, a research scientist in International Programs at NORC. “By engaging a wider variety of actors and sectors, you can compile more thorough stories of change.
“ILAB wanted more evidence about cross-project outcomes—things that individual project evaluations can’t capture. By engaging a wider variety of actors and sectors, you can compile more thorough stories of change.”
Applying a Complexity-Aware Approach to Program Evaluation
NORC employed the Most Significant Change (MSC) methodology, a complexity-aware approach that captures intended and unintended outcomes, and diverse stakeholder perspectives—elements often missed by traditional performance evaluations.
The evaluation team conducted interviews and focus groups with 312 participants across 19 Mexican states, engaging workers, union leaders, government officials, representatives of key industries, workers not affiliated with any union, implementing partners, and consultants. Unaffiliated workers provided crucial insights into information gaps and attitudes toward labor rights among Mexico’s broader industrial workforce.
Documenting Progress and Persistent Challenges
Our evaluation identified 21 significant changes across five domains, from democratic union formation to female workers’ empowerment to institutional capacity building, and we validated our findings through surveys and a workshop with 121 respondents.
We identified notable contributions. Eighteen new democratic unions formed and gained legal recognition, negotiating wage increases of 7 to 30 percent for workers. Agricultural communities in four states reduced child labor while improving workplace safety. Mexico’s new labor conciliation system achieved case resolution rates of 81 to 88 percent within 45 days or less.
However, our findings also revealed concerning gaps. Workers not affiliated with unions showed significant knowledge deficits about their rights under Mexico’s 2019 labor reform. In Baja California’s San Quintín Valley, for instance, labor violations persist without adequate inspection oversight.
Policy Implications for a Critical Juncture
Our findings suggest that strengthening Mexico’s National Commission of Labor Conciliation Centers (CONACENTROS), engaging U.S. companies’ Mexican subsidiaries in labor standards promotion, and developing coordinated approaches to agricultural worker organization might help further the priorities of the USMCA’s Labor Chapter.
The evaluation also identified sustainability risks, including federal budget cuts to Mexican labor institutions and a judicial reform process, which could disrupt the ongoing progress in labor courts’ and conciliation centers’ capacity building.
Rigorous Methods for Actionable Findings
NORC’s approach included multiple validation mechanisms to ensure validity. The team achieved data saturation across diverse stakeholder groups and quantified narrative findings with official statistics and project monitoring data.
“We quantified all our stories so that they are more persuasive and they can be understood in the context of the country and the industry,” Echeverría-Estrada said.
The evaluation demonstrates NORC’s capacity to navigate politically sensitive international assignments while maintaining scientific rigor and objectivity.
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