NORC Collaborates with The Associated Press on AP VoteCast in the U.S. 2020 General Election

CHICAGO, Nov. 2, 2020 — Developed by The Associated Press (AP) and NORC at the University of Chicago (NORC), AP VoteCast will provide data about the makeup of the American electorate nationwide to understand voting behavior in the 2020 general election. AP VoteCast is conducted for AP, Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, and The Wall Street Journal.

Creating reliable and objective information for the American people is NORC’s core mission. AP VoteCast aims to capture the opinions and preferences of voters as they choose who to vote for, along with the reasons behind their decision. It is based on a decade of research and statistical analyses that moves away from old-fashioned, in-person exit polling to a more accurate approach that reflects how Americans vote today–not only in the voting booth but increasingly through early, absentee, and mail-in ballots. Below is a breakdown about the process and how it works.

METHODOLOGY

  • AP VoteCast combines interviews with a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files, with self-identified registered voters selected using nonprobability approaches. In general elections, it also includes interviews with self-identified registered voters conducted using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak® Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.
  • Interviews are conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents may receive a small monetary incentive for completing the survey. Participants selected as part of the random sample can be contacted by phone and mail and can take the survey by phone or online. Participants selected as part of the nonprobability sample complete the survey online.
  • In the 2020 general election, the survey is expected to complete about 140,000 interviews with registered voters between October 26 and November 3, concluding as polls close on Election Day. AP VoteCast will deliver data about the presidential election in all 50 states, as well as all Senate and governors’ races in 2020. AP VoteCast will highlight the opinions of voters and nonvoters nationwide.
  • More information about the AP VoteCast methodology, including sampling and weighting details, is available here.

AP VoteCast captures both the voices of those who choose to vote, and registered voters who decide not to cast ballots. Together with the AP Vote Count and AP’s race calls, AP VoteCast provides newsrooms with all the data they need to tell the comprehensive story of Election Day.

We’re eager to bring AP VoteCast to the public and are confident that it will provide accurate and reliable results. For more information, contact Eric Young at NORC at young-eric@norc.org or (703) 217-6814 (cell).