For the Western New York Public Health Alliance Advanced Practice Center (APC), NORC is developing an evacuation modeling tool to predict likely evacuation destinations following emergency scenarios.  This information is intended to assist rural counties in developing emergency response plans to address potential population surge. The project is funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through a cooperative agreement with the National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO). 

NORC has consulted local and national preparedness experts and conducted a review of prior disaster and evacuation research to identify key variables predictive of resident evacuation patterns following disasters, and has developed algorithms to predict evacuation patterns to rural areas.  The algorithms utilize data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources. The evacuation modeling is based on three potential scenarios:  the detonation of a dirty bomb, an influenza pandemic, and a chemical incident.

The project team is collaborating with the Pennsylvania State University Center for Environmental Informatics to develop a map-based online interface to spatially display population movement according to these algorithms.   Through this interface users will be able to access population surge estimates and preparedness planning information for rural communities surrounding urban centers. 

Though the initial pilot tool focuses on hypothetical evacuations from Buffalo, NY to surrounding counties, it is anticipated that the tool will be expanded nationally and will be used by preparedness planning officials in urban, suburban, and rural communities across the United States.

Related publications

Meit, M., Briggs, T., Kennedy, A., Sutton, J. and Feldman, J. 2007. "Spontaneous Evacuation Following a Dirty Bomb or Pandemic Influenza: Highlights from a National Survey of Urban Residents' Intended Behavior." NORC Walsh Center for Rural Health Analysis Policy Brief, W Series, No. 11. November.  (1.2MB) 

Meit, M., Kennedy, A. and Briggs, T.  2007. "Urban-to-Rural Evaucation: Planning for Population Surge," NORC Walsh Center for Rural Health Analysis Policy Brief, W Series, No. 9.  April.   (125KB)

Related links

October 11, 2007: Webcast - Mass Evacuation to Rural Communities II Center for Public Health Preparedness, School of Public Health, University at Albany, SUNY.  

November 9, 2006: Webcast - Mass Evacuation to Rural Communities Center for Public Health Preparedness, School of Public Health, University at Albany, SUNY.